At this stage of the game, you just don't know. That is one of the goofy things about turkey hunting. They are a lot like mutual funds-- past performance is not an indication of future returns. I think somebody ought to make it a law that all turkeys need to be stamped with this warning the same way the SEC makes them do on a mutual fund prospectus.
For one thing, turkeys out in the open can be an indication that they have run out of food in the woods. I had that caution from a grouse hunter who has hunted my land for over 70 years.
For another thing, if the weather gets really nasty, a lot of turkeys can disappear. I am thinking of the couple of ice storms in recent years that have come just before the warm-up. Whole flocks seemed to vaporize. Then again, the worst ice storm 30 years happened a while back and it didn't faze them in the least.
It has me all wondering what we're going to see in my neck of the woods come Spring. This Fall, we had oodles of turkeys. They were everywhere. This past May, the Cicadas came out at just the right time and fed the poults. By October, I had little 2/3 scale turkeys running all over the place. On the other hand, what the Good Lord giveth, he takes away. Normally when the cicadas hit, you can expect one bad year of acorns followed by 2-3 good years. The bugs cause the ends of the oak stems to break off. Long term, this pruning does wonders, but the first fall after the cicadas is usually bleak. This year was like that on our ridge-- acorns were not in play for deer season at all. If you have lots of turkeys vying for little food. . .
You just don't know. I had the old grouse hunter tell me that he had seen two turkey carcasses frozen in the snow a few years ago, and had decided there weren't going to be any turkeys in the Spring. That year, I had to beat them off my legs with a stick. The grouse hunter and I both know the father of the local state wildlife biologist, and when "E. F. Hutton talks. . ." -- it still ain't worth spit. About all I can tell you is that the old grouse hunter has shown himself to be about as accurate as the groundhog in predicting what Spring is going to be like.